Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
